The disaster management experts of Union Home ministry have given a warning that a bigger disaster is in the waiting as earthquakes of 8.2 or more magnitude on Richter scale may hit the Himalayan region which is already in a critical state. In their opinion earthquakes of density, higher than the one which hit Manipur on Monday, will come in the region in future.
The tectonic shift has again ruptured the plates which already had cracks due to the series of earthquakes that took place in Manipur (Jan 2016), Nepal (May 2015) and Sikkim (2011), and this gives birth to a possibility that there may be multiple earthquakes and magnitude may go up to 8.0.
MHA’s National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) after doing its post-Nepal disaster management has warned that the risk has increased around the “ring of fire garlanding the entire north India especially the mountains”.
This issue was taken up in Itanagar also during the meeting of policy makers of 11 hill states, this meeting was called by the Central government and a decision was made to prepare a common building code for mountains.
Although some Indian scientists are not sure about it, the International experts mainly Roger Bilham, the seismologist from University of Colorado and a master of the subject feels, “the current conditions might trigger at least four earthquakes greater than 8.0 in magnitude. And if they delay, the strain accumulated during the centuries provokes more catastrophic mega earthquakes.”
As per the NDIM experts, “The collision between the Himalayan plate in the north and the Indo-Burmese plate in the east and the risk created as a result is the highest at this moment.” Since Nepal earthquake, the mountains of the north-east are experiencing stress and Monday’s earthquake of 6.7 magnitude in Manipur shows that the stress has not been released completely; in fact, it has deteriorated.
There are four seismic zones in India, among which the most active zone is Zone V, under which comes complete North-East, some parts of north Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Gujarat and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. In Zone IV comes Delhi and it is said to be one of the high-risk areas.
As per the assessment done by MHA, Indian cities which have most chances of being hit by earthquake, have weak regulatory mechanism and if any of these cities is hit by a catastrophe, then the loss will be huge.
UN office for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR) sees India as an important partner and it has approved the leadership of Kiren Rijiju, minister of state of home, when it made him disaster risk reduction champion for Asia two months ago. UNISDR has laid emphasis on India’s need for strict following of building codes and its need for an “enhanced preparedness for effective response to earthquakes.”