The Gujarat Assembly Election results have proven to be more of a setback for BJP despite winning majority. Gujarat has been BJP’s den since the last one and a half decade now and its failure to bag even a 100 seats this time clearly indicates its downward popularity. In the Lok Sabha Elections of 2014, BJP had managed to clean sweep all 26 seats that went into polling.
The Congress Party, which was all done and dusted in the Lok Sabha Elections, has started to breathe again after an impressive show in Gujarat. Why Gujarat matters so much is because it has been a citadel of the BJP even in times when Congress dominated at the centre. With BJP now at the centre, the dominance was bound to increase but that just wasn’t meant to be. Despite their victory, BJP have handed themselves so many reasons to scratch their head upon. Not one, there are now many reasons for the BJP to worry about. Failure of the extensive campaigning, farmer’s dissent, youth opting against BJP are just a few of those. To put them in a concrete number, here are 7 of those many reasons that are stressing Amit Shah, Narendra Modi, and Co.
1. Rise of Congress
The Lok Sabha Elections in 2014 took BJP’s dominance in Gujarat to an all new level as they managed to defeat Congress 26-0. Congress, by every means, were staring at their end in Gujarat. Just three years later, the scene has drastically changed as the scoreline now reads a merry 99-77. Congress are not just breathing again, they are now, for the first time in nearly two decades, posing a serious challenge to BJP in their own backyard. 2019 is now just over an year away and this surprising turn of events have certainly fuelled panic in the BJP camp. The fact that Congress’ success is credited to Rahul Gandhi also underlines the fact that these elections can act as stepping stones for Congress when they return to Gujarat in 2019.
2. Defeat in Rural Gujarat
Shifting ourselves from opinions to statistics now, let us have a look at the BJP’s downfall in rural Gujarat. Of the 127 semi-urban and rural seats, congress tussled away BJP by winning 68 seats as compared to BJP’s 55. Congress has shown a rise in the urban seat count too but BJP’s dominance in the urban half still looks impressive. In Urban Gujarat, BJP managed to win 44 out of 55 seats, four less than its tally in 2012. With 2019 closing in, the surge of Congress in rural Gujarat has surely created a few ripples through BJP. Congress have gained a strong lead in Saurashtra and Kutch which are predominantly rural and shows that BJP are no more the preference of farmer’s community. Farmers and soldiers have proven to be the gamechangers in Indian politics of late and BJP losing out in one of them is a clear sign that 2019 won’t be as easy as it was in 2014.
3. Shift in the Vote Share
BJP might have gained a slender increase in their vote share as compared to the 2012 elections but their vote count has dropped by a massive 11% when compared to the more recent 2014 Look Sabha elections. Their are two more points that make the shift in vote share a matter of concern for BJP. First, Congress have managed to increase their vote count by an impressive 7% from 38% in 2012 to 45% in 2017. Second, NOTA managed to get a total of 1.8% vote share which makes it the fourth biggest choice behind BJP, Congress, and Independents. First point indicates that BJP have now got a strong opposition in Gujarat and the second speaks of people’s dissent in BJP government at the centre. If the top heads do not find a way to get this shift in vote share tilt their way, they might end up with nothing left in their hands next time.
4. Rise of New Faces in Gujarat’s Politics
One of Congress’ major victories was its projection of young candidates as their leaders in Gujarat. Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani were battling it out for Congress against Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and almost all other top guns of BJP. Jignesh Mevani, one of the least experienced politician contesting the elections, won the Vadgam constituency comfortably. Mevani had stood firmly against the cow vigilantes spread across Gujarat and that helped him gain a lot of popularity. Alpesh Thakor was Congress’ flagbearer in the OBC community. His campaigning was not much impressive but his victory certainly was. The third name, Hardik Patel, has been the biggest cause of concern for BJP. Patel, aged just 24, made it difficult for the ruling party with his campaigning for the Patidar community. Patel eyes an entry into politics in the 2019 General Elections which surely means Congress will pose a fight come 2019. Narendra Modi had been the sole face of BJP in Gujarat since 2002. BJP has found it difficult to find a replacement for him even since his escalation to the centre. BJP have not fielded a CM candidate yet, even after their ex-CM, Vijay Rupani, won his seat comfortably, which clearly indicates that now it’s BJP’s turn to go without a leader and that too in their own backyard.
5. Decrease in the number of BJP MPs in Rajya Sabha
Back in 2014, Congress were dented by the defeats of its cabinet ministers. Now in 2017, BJP too is facing a similar loss. 5 of its ministers, 2 of whom were cabinet ministers, have lost their seats to opposing congress candidates. Most of the MLAs who joined BJP right before the elections have been on the losing side. BJP will now be sending less number of Rajya Sabha MPs from Gujarat. Their stranglehold in both the houses is likely to suffer significantly because of the downfall in the number of BJP MPs. The downfall becomes more worrying for BJP as the decline in their numbers has directly bettered Congress’ numbers. Congress are now a strong opposition which can if needed pose a serious challenge to government’s policies.
6. Defeat in Major Constituencies
BJP failed miserably in constituencies where minorities, SCs, and STs have had a significant vote share. They failed to win the Vadnagar costituency, which PM Modi claims to be his hometown, by a massive margin of 19500 votes. Congress gained in almost every region of Gujarat barring the central half. 15 of the seats which BJP won were won by a margin of less than 2000 votes. What will bother BJP more is the fact that minorities are now holding power to change the fate of Gujarat government after a long time. Minority votes turned out to be way more effective than they ever used to be in Gujarat. The results were visible as Congress gained at the cost of BJP’s dominance.
7. Failure of PM Modi’s Campaigning
PM Narendra Modi had gone out all guns blazing during the BJP’s election campaigns in Gujarat. He did not bother to refrain himself from stating his predecessor Manmohan Singh to be an agent of Pakistan. The war of words had heated up with Congress candidates too coming up with strong remarks against PM Narendra Modi. However, PM Narendra Modi was so confident of his campaigning that he predicted BJP to win at least 150 seats. Forget 150, BJP failed to even touch the 100 seat mark. BJP failed to win even in Vadnagar constituency which PM Modi claims to be his hometown. One thing BJP must have realised is that PM Modi can draw crowds without a doubt but now can’t have the same impact that he used to have back in 2014. His remarks for Congress failed to provide any impact as BJP surprisingly slumped to just 99 seats. PM Narendra Modi has been the driving force of BJP and a downfall in his prowess will certainly haunt BJP the most. If he is to stop his downfall, he is bound to speak less about what Congress hasn’t done and more about what BJP has done at the centre.
BJP and Congress had given in their everything to win in Gujarat. None of them bothered campaigning in Himachal Pradesh which too went under polling along with Gujarat. Though BJP prevailed somehow, Gujarat is surely cherishing a change in its politics. As far as BJP is concerned, they undoubtedly have a lot to ponder upon after the Gujarat assembly results. With 2019 just over an year away, alarm bells have now starting ringing for BJP. Will this downfall hurt BJP in 2019? Do let us know your answers in the comments section below.